The dollar ended the week slightly higher against a currency basket on Friday as upbeat U.S. data underlined the case for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at its upcoming meeting this week.
But the dollar fell to a one-week low against the safe haven yen amid concerns that more top Trump administration officials could be ousted from the White House and worries over the economic impact of U.S. trade tariffs. USD/JPY was down 0.31% at 106.00 in late trade after falling as low as 105.60 earlier, and ended the week down 0.84%.
The euro was lower against the dollar, with EUR/USD slipping 0.12% to1.2290.
Sterling was little changed against the U.S. currency late Friday, with GBP/USD last at 1.3942. USD/INR opens at 65.01 above the previous close of 64.99. After making a high of 65.09 prices saw a gradual down move making a low of 64.92, finally at the end of the trading session prices pullback of their low to closed at 65.02. For today we expect the pair to trade between 64.50 and 65.30. If prices break below 64.90 we might see prices testing 64.50.
Last week rupee appreciated by 0.2 percent despite dollar index strengthening by 0.16 percent. India’s IIP rose to 7.5% in Jan’18 from 7.1% in the previous month. Also, CPI inflation eased to 4.44 % in Feb’18 from 5.1% in Jan’18. Also, RBI had barred all banks from issuing LOU’s and Letter of Comfort with immediate effect. However, recent trade deficit data showed that India’s Feb’18 trade deficit widened to $12 billion from $8.9 billion in Feb’17.
The US dollar remained negative during most parts of the week after the sudden dismissal of US secretary of state Rex Tillerson. US President Donald trump fired Rex Tillerson after a series of public rifts over policy in North Korea, Russia and Iran, hence replacing his chief diplomat with loyalist CIA director Mike Pompeo. Also, CPI and Core CPI came in line with market expectations at 0.2% for Feb’18. PPI came in at 0.2% against market expectations of 0.1% for Feb’18. Retail sales came in at -0.1% against market expectations of 0.3% for Feb ’18.
USDINR is expected to move sideways in today’s session.
* Prices are trading in the range 64.86 and 65.16 from past four trading days
* Deeping ADX, RSI and MACD is indicating 65.50 to be a short term top
* Trend to remain bullish till 64 is not broken on the downside
* If prices breaks below 64.90 we might see prices testing 64.50
EURUSD depreciated by 0.1 percent while EURINR appreciated by 0.35 percent during the same time frame.
German CPI came in line with market expectations at 0.5% for Feb’18. In Mario Draghi’s latest speech he mentioned that bond buy back will continue till inflation reaches a sustainable level. French CPI came in at 0% against market expectations of -0.1% for Feb’18. Also, Chancellor Angela Merkel and her partners met to formally sign the grand coalition deal on Monday but admitted it was just a political necessity.
EURINR has been moving in rising wedge formation; where pair has traded near the lower side of the formation; which could be a immediate support for the prices. Price is above all the major DMAs. Daily RSI has been finding support at the previous through. Based on the above technical studies or indicator, we expect bullish movement in the prices towards 81.20 levels.
EURINR is expected to appreciate in today’s session.
* Prices making a seven day low placed at 79.98 breaking below 80 marks but failed to close below it.
* Negative divergence between prices and indicator are indicating some caution
* Trend to remain bullish till 78.80 is not broken on the downside
* If prices sustain below 80.20 we might see prices testing 79.70 levels.
GBP appreciated against the US dollar by 0.6 percent last week while GBPINR depreciated by 0.44 percent. In the latest budget release UK has revised its economic growth forecast to 1.5% for 2018 from previous estimates of 1.4% but the economy would slow down to 1.3% in 2019. Also, investors are expecting in the upcoming EU summit from 22-24 Mar’18 that the UK government will try to reach an agreement with EU on the post Brexit transition period.
GBPINR has moved above its previous peak which suggests growing optimism. Daily RSI has been finding support at the previous through. As per the above technical structure, we are expecting bullish movement in the prices towards 91.50 levels.
GBPINR is expected to move sideways in today’s session
* Prices are trading in the range 89.86 – 91.10
* ADX, RSI and MACD rounding of at same time indicating 91.86 to be an short term top
* Trend to remain bullish till 88.50 is not broken on downside
* If prices sustain below 90.85 we might we prices testing 89 levels
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