USDINR trading range for the day is 66.69-67.29. Rupee dropped as demand for greenback rose on fears upbeat US NFP data would build a case for three more rate hikes in 2018. Adding to this, dollar demand from oil importers and easing concern about US-China trade rift too weighed on the rupee. India FX reserves at record $420.36 bln as on Apr 27, down $3.21 bln on week.
BUY USDINR MAY 2018 @ 67.00 SL 64.85 TGT 67.15-67.30. NSE
Last week rupee depreciated by 0.4 as dollar index strengthened by 1.2 percent. The manufacturing PMI from India increased to 51.6 in Apr’18 against 51 in the previous month. Also, services PMI from India for Apr’18 came in at 51.4 against 50.3 in Mar’18. However, rupee depreciated by nearly 2.5 percent in last week on account of strong outflows by FII from the Indian debt and equity markets. They have sold around $1.8 billion in the past one week.
In the latest FOMC meeting the committee decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 1.75% which was expected by the market. They also noted that inflation has moved closer to 2 percent in this period. The FED also noted some improvements in the economy stating business fixed investment continued to grow strongly. Manufacturing PMI came in at 57.3 for Apr’18 against market expectations of 58.4. Non-manufacturing PMI from US came in at 56.8 for Apr’18 against market expectations of 58.1. Non-farm employment payroll came in at 164,000 for Apr’18 against market expectations of 190,000.
USDINR is expected to move sideways in today’s session.
EURINR trading range for the day is 79.91-80.66. Euro gained shrugging off data showing an unexpected slowdown in euro zone inflation, as the dollar’s recent rally paused. Euro zone inflation slowed to 1.2 percent year-on-year in April, down from 1.3 percent in March, and core inflation fell even more. The European Commission forecast growth in the euro area to moderate mildly given the large carryover from its robust expansion at the end of 2017.
SELL EURINR MAY 2018 @ 80.25 SL 80.50 TGT 80.00-79.85. NSE
EURUSD depreciated by 1.4 percent while EURINR appreciated by 1 percent during the same time frame. EU commission proposes 55 billion euros for Euro zone 2021-2027 budget for supporting investment in the region. Euro zone CPI came in at 1.2% for Apr’18 against market expectations of 1.3%. Euro zone manufacturing PMI came in line with market expectations at 56.2 for Apr’18. Also, services PMI came in line with market expectations for Apr’18 at 54.7.
EURINR is expected to appreciate in today’s session.
GBPINR trading range for the day is 90.19-91.58. GBP traded in range after a major survey showed Britain’s services sector struggled to recover in April from a sharp slowdown in March. PM May’s plan for Britain to leave the EU customs union when it quits the bloc – and not join a similar arrangement – has become a flashpoint in the Brexit process. The IHS Markit/CIPS services PMI rose to 52.8 in April from March’s 20-month low of 51.7, a smaller increase than forecasted.
SELL GBPINR MAY 2018 @ 90.90 SL 91.20 TGT 90.56-90.10. NSE
GBP depreciated against the US dollar by 1.63 percent last week while GBPINR appreciated by 1.27 percent. Pound declined during the week on account of resurgence for Brexit uncertainties and the resignation of one of PM Theresa May’s key European allies in government according to strategists. Services PMI from UK came in at 52.8 against market expectations of 53.5 for Apr’18. Construction PMI from UK came in 52.5 for Apr’18 against market expectations of 50.5. However, manufacturing PMI came in at 53.9 against market expectations of 54.8 in Apr’18.
GBPINR is expected to appreciate in today’s session.
JPYINR trading range for the day is 61.24-61.8. JPY gained as the U.S. dollar fell as investors took profits from a rally that sent the greenback to its highest levels of the year and awaited payrolls data for April. Japan’s consumer confidence weakened unexpectedly in April after remaining stable in the previous month, data from Cabinet Office showed. The services sector in Japan continued to expand in April, and at a faster rate, the latest survey from Nikkei revealed with a services PMI score of 52.5.
BUY JPYINR MAY 2018 @ 61.50 SL 61.20 TGT 61.75-61.90. NSE
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