Indian Rupee depreciated by 0.41 percent despite dollar index weakening by 0.27 percent during the day as investors were cautious about the outcome on supply cut for crude oil in the OPEC meeting. Meanwhile, in the monetary policy meeting held by RBI yesterday the PMC decided to keep the interest rates unchanged at 6.25 percent and maintained its stance of calibrated tightening.
US Central Bank Chief, Powell, shocked investors with his call of rates being “just below” neutral. Donald Trump and Xi Jinping have reached a truce in the US-China trade war for a period of 90 days. US won’t be imposing additional tariffs on China. The current rate of 10 percent tariffs would remain on Chinese goods. Meanwhile, the arrest of CFO of Huawei phones in Canada over his inclusion in the Iran deal increased the concerns over the Us-China trade war. ADP Non-farm payroll data came in at 179,000 against market expectations of 195,000 for Nov’18.
USDINR is expected to appreciate in today’s session..
* USDINR trading range for the day is 70.59-71.49.
* Rupee dropped but recovered some of its losses after Saudi Energy Minister said a consensus has not yet been reached regarding production cut in crude oil prices.
* The U.S. dollar gained after the arrest in Canada of a top executive of Chinese tech giant Huawei prompted fears of a flare-up in U.S.-China trade tensions.
* The Reserve Bank of India would be ready to take policy action if upside risks to inflation do not materialise, Governor Urjit Patel said.
* SELL USDINR DEC 2018 @ 70.90 SL 71.05 TGT 70.78-70.65. NSE
EURUSD appreciated by 0.26 percent yesterday while EURINR depreciated by 0.25 percent during the same time frame. EU commission had rejected Italian budget and asked them to revise their spending plans. Italy is ready to revise its budget deficit by 0.2 percent down to 2.2 percent which is still above EU’s target of 2 percent. Italy’s PM assured that the revised budget will be ready soon. Meanwhile, German factory orders came in at 0.3 percent against market expectations of -0.4 percent for Nov’18.
EURINR is expected to appreciate in today’s session.
* EURINR trading range for the day is 80.12-81.2.
* Euro seen supported as the dollar is under pressure amid concerns about economic growth following an inversion of the U.S. Treasury yield curve.
* Eurozone’s private sector growth was the lowest in more than two years during November, led by Germany.
* Eurozone producer price inflation accelerated further in October, defying expectations, figures from Eurostat showed.
* BUY EURINR DEC 2018 @ 80.35 SL 80.00 TGT 80.58-80.80. NSE
GBP appreciated against the US dollar by 0.4 percent yesterday while GBPINR depreciated by 0.81 percent. BOE published its report on Brexit, saying that in the worst case scenario, Brexit will lead to 8% fall in GDP short-term while the Pound could depreciate as much as 25 percent. Earlier during the week pound bounced on the news that UK could cancel the Brexit unilaterally. However, later on PM May’s spokesperson said that Government does not want to cancel Brexit. The Parliamentary vote on Brexit deal will be held on the coming Tuesday.
GBPINR is expected to move sideways in today’s session.
* GBPINR trading range for the day is 89.6-91.29.
* GBP remained supported on a more positive outlook over Brexit, overcoming data showing a shock slide in Britain’s services sector.
* Support also seen lifted by suggestions in some quarters that Britain may opt not to leave the European Union after all.
* The risks of Britain crashing out of the EU were seen to have fallen after parliamentary setbacks for Prime Minister Theresa May.
* BUY GBPINR DEC 2018 @ 90.25 SL 89.90 TGT 90.56-90.80. NSE
* JPYINR trading range for the day is 62.49-63.69.
* JPY gained as the dollar fell as growing investor aversion to riskier assets hit equities and pushed down U.S. Treasury yields.
* BoJ’s Kuroda: Exit approach will depend on factors including inflation, Japan’s inflation expectations have stayed flat
* BoJ’s Kuroda: Inflation to gain momentum as GDP gap remains positive
* BUY JPYINR DEC 2018 @ 62.65 SL 62.40 TGT 62.90-63.10. NSEAFTER POST CONTENT
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