* USDINR trading range for the day is 70.74-71.38.
* Rupee appreciated on likely foreign fund inflows into local stocks and buying by exporters while bond prices fell tracking higher crude oil prices.
* RBI eases hedging rules for external commercial borrowing
* RBI said companies would now be required to hedge 70 percent of their external commercial borrowings (ECB) for maturity periods of three to five years
Indian Rupee appreciated by 0.04 percent as dollar index strengthened by 0.30 percent during the day mainly on account of rising tensions between US and China. Meanwhile, RBI and Government break the ice during the nine hour long RBI board meeting yesterday after RBI agreed to work out loan restructuring scheme for SMEs for loan exposure for up to Rs. 25 crore.
Core retail sales data from US came in at 0.7 percent against market expectations of 0.5 percent for Oct’18. According to US Fed officials the central bank is nearing the end of its tightening cycle. Core durable goods orders from US came in at 0.1 percent against market expectations of 0.4 percent. Meanwhile, Donald Trump is likely to impose additional tariffs on Chinese goods of $200 billion from 10 percent to 25 percent if the trade talks between US and China fail. US economic advisor Larry Kudlow stated that Beijing’s response to Trump‘s demands has been very disappointing and unsatisfactory. CB consumer confidence from US came in at 135.7 for Nov’18 against market expectations of 136.2.
>> BUY USDINR DEC 2018 @ 70.85 SL 70.70 TGT 71.10-71.35. NSE
* EURINR trading range for the day is 80.13-81.14.
* Euro weakened after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi acknowledged slowing growth in the region.
* ECB’s Praet says will have to clarify what the ECB means by reinvesting for an extended period of time, which could come in the December meeting
* ECB’s Praet says growth risks are primarily related to Politics
EURUSD depreciated by 0.34 percent yesterday while EURINR appreciated by 0.09 percent during the same time frame.
EU commission had rejected Italian budget and asked them to revise their spending plans. After initial denial to cut the budget deficit Italy is likely to revise its budget but nothing officially hasn’t been confirmed until now. Meanwhile, EU accepted the Brexit draft deal and Mario Draghi in his speech accepted that the European data have come on a weaker note which is expected as expansion matures.
>> SELL EURINR DEC 2018 @ 80.25 SL 80.55 TGT 80.02-79.85. NSE
* GBPINR trading range for the day is 90.09-91.71.
* GBP traded in range amid doubts about whether Prime Minister Theresa May can get the agreement through a divided parliament.
* BoE Governor Carney and former Fed Chair Greenspan are due to be speaking now. I’ve not seen any remarks reported as of yet
* Recent positioning data suggests hedge funds have started to unwind large short positions on sterling as hopes grow that Britain may manage to negotiate an orderly Brexit.
GBP depreciated against the US dollar by 0.67 percent yesterday while GBPINR appreciated by 0.71 percent.
UK PM May travelled to Brussels to meet EU’s Juncker and discuss the future relation of both economies in the post-Brexit era. EU accepted the Brexit deal now PM would be traveling back home to get the deal approved from the Parliament which in itself is a big job to be done. Meanwhile, CPI from UK came in at 2.4 percent against market expectations of 2.5 percent for Oct’18.
>> SELL GBPINR DEC 2018 @ 90.50 SL 90.85 TGT 90.18-89.95. NSE
* JPYINR trading range for the day is 62.33-63.11.
* JPY traded in range as dollar held steady as fresh concerns about the Sino-U.S. trade war lent support to safe haven currencies.
* BOJ Kuroda: Aging puts downward pressure on bank’s profits.
* Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda: Population aging is already sweeping through nations, and banks need to adjust their business model for the ageing challenge.
JPYINR has closed down on Tuesday and settled on negative note. On a the daily chart, pair has been falling down continuously from last four weeks. In addition, pair has managed to sustain below 100 days EMA on the daily chart. Moreover, a momentum indicator RSI (14) and MACD has corrected from highs and moved below support line; which indicates more correction in the pair.
So based on the above analysis, we expect bearish movement in JPYINR (Nov) towards 62.10 levels.
>> SELL JPYINR DEC 2018 @ 62.45 SL 62.70 TGT 62.15-61.95. NSEAFTER POST CONTENT
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