Indian Rupee depreciated by 0.23 percent as dollar index strengthened by 0.16 percent during the day mainly on account of rising tensions between US and China. Meanwhile, RBI and Government break the ice during the nine hour long RBI board meeting yesterday after RBI agreed to work out loan restructuring scheme for SMEs for loan exposure for up to Rs. 25 crore.
US CPI came in line with market expectations at 0.3 percent for Oct’18. Core retail sales data from US came in at 0.7 percent against market expectations of 0.5 percent for Oct’18. According to US Fed officials the central bank is nearing the end of its tightening cycle. Core durable goods orders from US came in at 0.1 percent against market expectations of 0.4 percent. Meanwhile, Donald Trump is likely to impose additional tariffs on Chinese goods of $200 billion from 10 percent to 25 percent if the trade talks between US and China fail.
USDINR is expected to move sideways in today’s session.
* USDINR trading range for the day is 70.01-71.28.
* Rupee reversed gains on selling by nationalised banks and month-end dollar demand by oil importers amid higher crude oil prices.
* RBI should provide more liquidity to non-banking finance companies (NBFCs) in a bid to boost lending, Economic Affairs Secretary Subhash Chandra Garg said.
* India does not need money from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in the next six months, the finance minister said.
* RBI Reference Rate for USDINR was at 70.7144.
>> BUY USDINR NOV 2018 @ 70.85 SL 70.65 TGT 71.05-71.18. NSE
EURUSD depreciated by 0.12 percent yesterday while EURINR depreciated by 0.23 percent during the same time frame.
EU commission had rejected Italian budget and asked them to revise their spending plans. But Italy reiterated that they cannot revise their budget plans and are ready to face sanctions from EU commission. Meanwhile, EU accepted the Brexit draft deal and Mario Draghi in his speech accepted that the European data have come on a weaker note which is expected as expansion matures.
EURINR is expected to move sideways in today’s session.
* EURINR trading range for the day is 79.45-81.16.
* Euro remained under pressure as traders reacted to weak economic data out of the common area.
* Euro zone business growth has been much weaker than expected this month as a slowing global economy and the trade war have led to a sharp fall in exports.
* Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini hinted on Sunday at the possibility of tweaking the country’s deficit goal for next year.
* RBI Reference Rate for EURINR was at 80.266.
* SELL EURINR NOV 2018 @ 80.40 SL 80.65 TGT 80.10-79.90. NSE
GBP appreciated against the US dollar by 0.16 percent yesterday while GBPINR depreciated by 0.39 percent.
UK PM May travelled to Brussels to meet EU’s Juncker and discuss the future relation of both economies in the post-Brexit era. EU accepted the Brexit deal now PM would be traveling back home to get the deal approved from the Parliament which in itself is a big job to be done. Meanwhile, CPI from UK came in at 2.4 percent against market expectations of 2.5 percent for Oct’18.
GBPINR is expected to appreciate in today’s session.
* GBPINR trading range for the day is 89.71-91.81.
* GBP remained under pressure as investors moved to the sidelines where European Union and British policymakers are expected to endorse a Brexit deal.
* European Union leaders sealed a Brexit pact on Sunday calling it the ‘best possible’ deal that Britain could have got.
* The UK budget deficit in October far exceeded expectations and was the biggest for the month in three years.
* RBI Reference Rate for GBPINR was at 90.6478.
* SELL GBPINR NOV 2018 @ 90.90 SL 91.30 TGT 90.60-90.40. NSE
JPYINR has breached its prior support of 63 levels and tested a new weekly low of 62.05. Overall, pair has shown almost 1.6% down fall during the week. On a the daily chart, pair has been falling down continuously from last four weeks. In addition, pair has managed to sustain below 100 days EMA on the daily chart. Moreover, a momentum indicator RSI (14) and MACD has corrected from highs and moved below support line; which indicates more correction in the pair.
So based on the above analysis, we expect bearish movement in JPYINR (Nov) towards 62.10 – 62.20 levels.
* JPYINR trading range for the day is 61.84-63.01.
* JPY remained under pressure with the Fed on a monetary tightening path while the Bank of Japan remains committed to its ultra-loose monetary policy.
* BOJ Kuroda: Japan’s financial system maintaining stability on the whole
* BOJ Kuroda: Must be mindful of pressure on economy from the financial system
* RBI Reference Rate for JPYINR was at 62.47.
* SELL JPYINR NOV 2018 @ 62.50 SL 62.80 TGT 62.20-62.05. NSEAFTER POST CONTENT
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